What is the probability for "Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will I (wasabipesto) think some subset of republicans attempted a coup before the first 3 months of the new administration?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 10% with 7 traders and $425 in volume.

Conditional on a democrat winning in 2024, will I (wasabipesto) think some subset of republicans attempted a coup before the first 3 months of the new administration?

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