What is the probability for "By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on

Q: What is the probability for "By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on <= 1 year predictions?" on Manifold?

The current market probability is — with 26 traders and $1K in volume.

Question

What is the probability for "By which years will AI be shown to have a better log loss than the Metaculus community pred. on <= 1 year predictions?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is — with 26 traders and $1K in volume.