What is the probability for "Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with

Q: What is the probability for "Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?" on Manifold?

The current market probability is 84% with 10 traders and $3K in volume.

Question

What is the probability for "Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 84% with 10 traders and $3K in volume.

Before 2028, will any AI model achieve the same or greater benchmarks as o3 high with <= 1 million tokens per question?

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