What is the probability for "At the 95th Academy Awards, will the movie that wins in the 'Best Director' category also win in the 'Best Picture' category?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 50% with 0 traders and $0 in volume.

At the 95th Academy Awards, will the movie that wins in the 'Best Director' category also win in the 'Best Picture' category?

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